[Duffy]

(01-31-2017, 06:57 PM)Roger Hunter Wrote:

(01-31-2017, 04:29 PM)Duffy Wrote: The following are the results from the 11 day test, relating to correlations with 5+ earthquakes. Abbreviations; SR, SS, DT, NT signify sunrise / sunset, day / night terminator. Centre of sun/ moon are the same as used in the test CS, CM, and relate to the longitude of the posted bearing.  The parameters used were +/- 0 margin for the times stated, and +/- 1' margin for central sun/moon position. I have dispensed with additional formulas in these results, because they are unproven at the present time ... I concentrated on the "known" so to speak.

4th Jan 19:54 ut ... CS 117' 12' W - 22' 38' S ...... MT,SS,SR
                            CM   40' 19' W -  1' 23' S ...... SS

6th Jan 01:41 ut ... CS 156' 12' E - 22'29' S ........ SR
                            CM 112' 06' W -  4' 08' N ...... SR,CM

6th Jan 08:28 ut ... CS 54' 29' E - 22' 27' S ......... SS,NT
                            CM 149' 38' E -  5' 22' N ....... NT,SS

7th Jan 10:24 ut ... CS 25' 36' E - 22' 19' S ......... CS
                            CM 134' 20' E - 9' 55' N ........ NT,NT,NT

10th Jan 15:26 ut . CS 49' 35' W - 21' 52' S .......................
                            CM 103' 22' E - 18' 34' N ...... DT,CM,CS

12th Jan 13:14 ut . CS  16' 23' W - 21' 33' S ....... DT
                            CM 163' 59' E - 18' 06' N ...... CS,CS

15th Jan 00:26 ut . CS 175' 50' E - 21' 07' S ....... SR
                            CM  28' 53' E - 11' 39' N ....... SR,CM,CS,CS,CS

15th Jan 17:19 ut . CS  77' 21' W - 20' 59' S ....... NT,NT,DT,DT,CM
                            CM 144' 11' E -  9' 04' N ....... SR,SR,NT,CS

18th Jan 18:54 ut . CS 100' 51' W - 20' 23' S ...... CM
                            CM 154' 29' E -   3' 10' S ....... CS

18th Jan 23:38 ut . CS 171' 50' W - 20' 20' S .........................
                            CM  85' 34' E -   3' 55' S ........ NT,CS

24th Jan 13:52 ut . CS  24' 57' W -  19' 04' S .........................
                            CM  66' 48' W - 18' 32' S .........................

25th Jan 09:01 ut . CS  47' 50' E -  18' 52' S ..........................
                            CM  15' 25' E -  18' 54' S .........................


Number of bearings posted in the table; 24
Number of 5+ earthquakes over 11 days; 46
Number of terminator zone contacts; 25
Number of sun and moon contacts; 15


I don't know if these results have any kind of scientific value, but as a non scientist, you have to put yourself in my shoes.  If you randomly chose 24 points on a map, and it was sunrise / sunset, or the sun / moon was on one of these points at the same time a 5+ quake occurs ... what does it suggest ?.  Is it possible that this can happen in 11 days ?  what are the odd's of getting 1 random selection right in the same period ?  I don't think anyone can dispute, that the data provided wasn't authentic. I posted before the events, and I continued to do so during the events. I started this with a speculative suggestion, that this could somehow be related to time of event, or at least incorporated in a model to try and determine correlation.  My level of computer knowledge does not go much beyond conversing on this forum, or shopping on Ebay.  A shameful thing to admit in this day and age, but it doesn't mean I can't see the possibilities with the right people.

Another question that comes to mind based on the results is; if this is random selection resulting in 40 varying contacts, why would 15 of them be related to the 15th Jan data ? Was there anything different with the sun or moon, compared to any of the other days ? Does this day have any significance related to Seismic activity ? ... yes it does !.  15th Jan is the only day, out of the 31 days in this month, that a magnitude 5 or greater did not occur ! (EMSC Records).  I don't want to speculate on why this should be, because the object of this exercise was to determine significance of signal ... "first".

I mentioned more than once, that the chosen bearings would loose influence after the time of new moon had passed. I continued to monitor activity up to 72 hours later, and no contacts were forthcoming. all previous days from the 16th Jan received multiple hits .. bar the 20th.  Again, if this is random selection, how could I lay claim to something that actually happened, unless I had already tested this hypothesis myself !.  

I thank and appreciate Roger's efforts and enthusiasm in trying to help me find an answer to these questions, even though we seem to get a few things back to front, or upside down (and we regularly ride tall horses !).  But it would be appreciated if anyone could help him with his program question, or give your views on any of the above.  Understandably, my character has been questionable in the past, and I have had my days ... but in the end, is it not the science that counts ? 


Duffy

PS. I think it's my second anniversary on Earthwaves today.  When I first joined, I was exchanging Star Trek jokes with Brian, intimidating Chris with my mother-in-law, and arguing 3 weeks straight with Roger over claim to a 6 in Mexico or somewhere.  I miss those days because they seemed opportunistic .. 2 years on and I find I have to question why I should still be here !

Duffy;

There were 147 mag 5+ quakes in January so your hits don't seem so important. I can't go any farther until someone answers my astronomy question.

I hope you don't give up before we get a definitive answer. I need the mental exercise.

Roger

Roger:

PLEASE read my post again, and tell me why your last statement is contrary to my results !


Duffy