[Skywise]

(01-27-2015, 01:15 PM)Island Chris Wrote: Hi again Duffy,
In the past, I have a different interest than Roger and some others. Roger (and others) have tended to make posts that a prediction has to be useful to people (to get them out of buildings or something). He and others would like magnitude range, date range, and location range. My read is that you should be only able to do date range. Logically, if there is an ionospheric signal, with a single recording station, that is all you should be able to do. Or, if I understand right, maybe you can see disturbances in reception from different transmitting stations so could get some regional path for the disturbance?

Anyhow, something like this can be useful for what triggers quakes. For example, if magnetic storms or earth tides triggered quakes, even with no location or particular magnitude, it would have been interesting that something that weak could induce forces in the earth enough to affect seismicity. Rogers analysis suggests no relation between magnetic storms or solar flares and large quakes. There have been some papers that show a limited affect of earth tides (Tolstoy, on the spreading ridge off of the USA Pacific northwest/Cascadia).

I don't have time, but it would not be a bad idea to find papers on ionospheric disturbaces on quakes. The AGU journals are open access after 2 years now.
Chris

You're right, Chris. Even saying "mag 7+ within the next 72 hours" is testable.

Also, although magnetic disturbances in the ionosphere may seem weak, there is in reality a lot of energy there. It's just spread out over half the planet.

Anyway, the idea is testable. We just need the data. Kind of hard to confirm if you've got enough milk in the fridge for mac&cheese if you're not allowed to look in the fridge.

Brian