vlf Quake precursor, Whats the story so far
#39
(03-02-2015, 11:10 PM)Roger Hunter Wrote:
(03-02-2015, 10:55 PM)Duffy Wrote: Hi Chris;

Nice to finally meet you,

Unfortunately, in your absence, I may have rocked the boat a little, so the images have probably fallen overboard. I've relegated myself to the dugout (think you guys call it the sin bin) untill I've had the chance to familiarise myself with Earthwaves as a whole.

A graph would be the way to go if a criteria or standard could be found to establish, what is a 6 or a 7, the problem is the quakes themselves dont appear to stick to a recognizable format. For instance, out of half a dozen images of signals for mag 6+ quakes, you may get 4 with distinctive similarities, the other 2 however, may be off the chart.

I have started a graph of sorts in my office, and a world map with markers etc, but I think the real trick here is visual pattern recognition with the images. Every few months, I place them around the kitchen floor like a roulette table, catagorise them by similarity, and its amazing how close the magnitude differences pan out at.

For this to work though, you have to have sufficiant samples to work with, I recorded a new, unfarmiliar signal at 10:15 UT last Friday morning, (27th) I knew it was definately a sub-terranian EM, and the only thing I could link it to was the mag 7 Flores Sea quake at 13:45 UT. The problem here though is the depth, 552 km, so at the moment this is highly unlikely, but in the future, if I record similar signals, linked to quakes of similar magnitude and depth, well, wouldn't that be something.

I'm rigging up a dual 24/7 monitoring system at the moment, and a couple of experiments that are costing the Earth (pardon the punn), so hopefully I'll have more images to play around with soon.

I've been a bit busy on Earthwaves the past few weeks, and hadn't realised how little attention my family and my astronomy was receiving, so I'm sticking to time/date/ mag predictions at the moment, If I don't take mother-in-law to a fancy restaurant at least once a month, there's no living under this roof Big Grin.

Did you say snow!, We Brits were wondering when you guys across the pond are going to send some our way, strange temperatures are really confusing the wild life here. By coincidence, my cousin in New York city sent me some pictures of how Central park looked this morning (not as good as your's).

Think I'll go and do some more farmiliarising now, noticed there was a store round here somewhere, might wait untill Black Friday to buy anything though Rolleyes.

Nice talking to you.

Duffy;

Duffy;

Make it easier on yourself. Concentrate on just date for now. If we can show a high correlation between your dates and a following quake then it's worth pursuing. No one else has done it. If not then you need a different hobby.

Roger

Hi Roger;

may I first suggest that we may have got off on the wrong foot here (mine was probably in my mouth) and that we wipe the slate clean and start over. After all, I'm the amature who provides the data, and your the professional who knows how to use it, we could get some good science done here, be a shame to waste it on misunderstandings.

You may have noted, I mentioned the Flores Sea quake in my last post, well, I recorded another long duration signal from 9:00 UT on sunday (1st March) which displayed another unfamilliar pattern, which I've now linked with the m 6.4 quake near Indonesia this morning (3rd). In both cases I didn't post because the unfamilliarity didn't give me much scope to determine a magnitude, I was trying to maintain my own standard of predictable signals, to emphasize I was using skill and not chance. It would appear further adjustments to the system are still taking it in the right direction, unfortunatlly, with ever change, I have to start over to recognise the patterns again.

If I read you correctly,and I do in fact have something unique, and of genuine interest, then the time for clowning around as far as this is concerned is over. I'll post the date and time of the EM signal as requested, but if I could make a suggestion here, I've developed a keen eye for detail through astronomy, and I'm 90% sure I can detect any Earth related signals in these recordings (taking the usual variables into account). It might be an idea to post any unidentified signal info, regardless of any magnitude estimate, and if any do result in a positive prediction, may I further suggest, related images be posted in prediction evaluation or informal predictions, so others may have the chance to scrutinise them. Hope you find this agreeable, unless you have something else in mind.

If you are in agreement, I'd like to request a consideration be taken into account during evaluation, I know what this system is capable of, and it has indeed recorded Mag 4's and 5's, but only within a range of 1500km's (Greenland sea, North Atlantic Ridge etc). It has also recorded localised quakes (2.9 Winchester UK, 3.8 Rutland UK etc), and from experiance, I've noted the lower magnitude quakes take longer to arrive, sometimes 4 to 5 days longer. I've speculated that it could have something to do with lower tectonic stress or preasure levels. If a signal isn't corrolated to a 6+ quake after 48 hours, and a lower mag does occur within a 5 day window, in the range specified, would it be feasable to include it in a sub-file, and be re-evaluated at a future time should the need arise ?.

To chang the subject slightly, I honestly have no idea of what's happened to the missing images, I've only just mastered how to put them on, and didn't know I was able to remove them had I wished to do so. As Brian suggested, I may have somehow done it accidently, I do have a knack of pushing the wrong buttons lately. There was a post the other morning that I replied "I sincerely get the point" but it had gone in the evening, I don't recall its content but maybe the two are linked. Unfortunately, its the same with blogging or facebook, never done them, my wife deals with any of that, I'm a bit old school I'm afraid. Having a new broadband setup this week, so at the first oppotunity, I'll ask my wife to replace them if its possible.

The M6.4 Indonesian quake I mentioned earlier, its to late for prediction purposses, but I have very good comparable recordings from both monitors if anybody wishes to see sample images, there's also a couple of features that could be related to the Radon debate, I'll post in a new thread if requested.

Sorry about the novel again Roger, hope its helped to put us on a better footing, as for hobbies, I'm quite happy with the one's I have, but if I did fancy a change, I'd probably try my hand at sailing, I appear to be quite apt at rocking boats and making waves Smile.

Duffy,




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Messages In This Thread
RE: vlf Quake precursor, Whats the story so far - by Duffy - 03-03-2015, 10:03 PM
removing graphics - by Island Chris - 03-04-2015, 12:19 PM

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