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+--- Thread: Are we there yet ? (/showthread.php?tid=285)
Are we there yet ? - Duffy - 07-19-2015
Hi guys,
Sorry for my absence, I've been up to my neck in technical, experimental and theoretical research regarding a certain electromagnetic signal that I appear to have misplaced earlier this year. Though I was tempted to reply to Chris this morning, I don't know my faults from my folds yet, but being a farmers son I know a lot about cows
.I decided to break cover today because my main system has recorded an 8 hour EM disruption, from 09:07 UT this morning until 16:48 UT this afternoon. Admittedly, I've had a lot of false calls over the past weeks, and this could also be one of them!, but this one has similar characteristics to the Greenland sea recording I made in January. Signal start has a 7dB field strength average, and finishes with a 26dB average, signal termination was very abrupt (like it was cut with a knife), and as of the time of this post, no further disruption has persisted (high probability of no equipment issues).
If I was to make a prediction with the data at hand, I'd probably go for a mid to high 5 quake, within a 2500 km radius of my location in the next 72 hours starting from 19:07 Ut on Sunday 19th July. This would be my best guess if I used the January recording as an example, and bear in mind, my current system has undergone a full makeover, its untested and may still require further calibration.
The chances of this being remotely right are low at the moment, but I'm hoping this will change in the near future, besides, the odd post now and then might help with my rehabilitation from lurking
.Duffy,
RE: Are we there yet ? - Skywise - 07-20-2015
Hi Duffy. Good to hear from you. Glad that you're still with us.
The only problem is 5's happen quite often. Per the USGS the historical record shows an average of 1319 per year. That's one every 6.6 hours. 6's are 134 per year, or one every 2-3/4 days.
http://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/eqarchives/year/eqstats.php
Nevertheless, any events that might correlate to your signal would be very interesting. Although you expect only in the high 5's, I think any large event at least that large should be considered as a possible correlation.
Brian
RE: Are we there yet ? - Duffy - 07-20-2015
Hi Brian,
Thanks for the welcome, though I hadn't really gone anywhere, I've been busy working the problem and felt I had nothing positive to add to the site until now.
I appreciate the info on the quake statistics, but it wasn't really necessary for my benefit, like yourself, I check the quake sites 3 or 4 times daily so I'm familiar with magnitude frequency's (pardon the punt). Thats why I decided to include a radial distance in my prediction, 5+'s are less frequent around the UK compared to other active regions, and including a 72 hour window narrows it down considerably more.
To be honest with you, I've based this prediction on pattern recognition from previous data as mentioned earlier, but at this stage it could quite easily be anything from a 7 in Antarctica, to an 8 hour session of Game of thrones from my neighbour's Xbox.
Time will tell !.
Duffy
RE: Are we there yet ? - Duffy - 07-22-2015
Looks like I got timed out on this one, I wouldn't blame anyone for thinking I'd set my sights a little high. The signal started low, and over the time recorded increased, giving the impression of an energy build up, I decided on a lower magnitude and longer prediction period because I have a theory that lower magnitude equates to lower tectonic pressure. When this pressure reaches a peak, it remains in stasis longer than a higher magnitude before final release.
The recording showed EM disruption didn't achieve more than 18KHz at its peak (previous high mags have reached considerably more) and the increase was constant so technical and man-made influences are less likely to be the cause. Its possible that something may occur in the next couple of days within prediction parameters, minus time of course.
Still in the newness phase at the moment, and might end up with a few false hits, hope to improve the odd's by the fall, in the mean time, Game of Thrones anyone
.Duffy,
P.S. M3.9 Portugal
I think not.
RE: Are we there yet ? - Roger Hunter - 07-23-2015
(07-22-2015, 09:56 PM)Duffy Wrote: Still in the newness phase at the moment, and might end up with a few false hits, hope to improve the odd's by the fall, in the mean time, Game of Thrones anyone
Just so you know, I'm not keeping track of these trial balloons because the misses would mess up your score.
I won't start anything until you say you're ready to make real predictions "for the record".
Roger
RE: Are we there yet ? - Duffy - 07-23-2015
Hi Roger,
I appreciate that, not had the best of times since I tried to alter the monitoring rate, I eventually found the fault but the repair is taking longer than I anticipated.
Glad your still keeping an eye on me though !!.
Duffy,
RE: Are we there yet ? - Roger Hunter - 07-24-2015
(07-23-2015, 09:17 PM)Duffy Wrote: Hi Roger,
I appreciate that, not had the best of times since I tried to alter the monitoring rate, I eventually found the fault but the repair is taking longer than I anticipated.
Glad your still keeping an eye on me though !!.
Duffy,
Always. I like your attitude.
Roger