Prediction for Mid-Atlantic 25 / 3 / 2017
(04-14-2017, 01:07 PM)Roger Hunter Wrote:
(04-14-2017, 10:46 AM)Duffy Wrote:
(04-14-2017, 12:45 AM)Roger Hunter Wrote:
(04-14-2017, 12:39 AM)Duffy Wrote:
(04-13-2017, 10:43 PM)Roger Hunter Wrote: Duffy;

Sorry but I don't get excited over 5s.


Sorry it's only a small event, but it is within the range of the magnitude posted ... it's good to see you haven't lost your flair for encouragement!



>> If that's your professional opinion as an evaluator ... why bother trying ?

Trying what? It's you that shouldn't bother trying to predict the small ones.

>> My data suggests South Sandwich Islands on 31'W  looks ready for another rumble.
     If I was to predict here, what magnitude would you suggest I chose ?
     This region is seismically active, I am likely to get a hit anyway ... should I bother predicting ?

Only if you have reason to expect a 6+

>>  How do you suggest I determine between a 5 or a 7 from a spike on a monitor ?

That's your problem. What you need to solve it is a large number of spikes which matched quakes so you can look for patterns indicating size.

Did you check out my search program yet?

>> In truth, I have been too busy with work, but I'm taking time off for Easter so I'll check it out this weekend.

Ok. Extract everything into the same folder and click on the .exe file. It expects decimal degrees for lat/lon.
Small maps may not work right.

Output maps have the same name so rename if you want to keep them.



As a companion to the search program, I've written a program to compute odds for predictions which call for quakes of a given size range falling within a lat/lon box or a circle about a lat/lon point.

It uses the same quake file as the search program and should be kept in the same folder.

The odds are determined by finding the number of times such quakes have happened historically versus the number of times it could have happened.



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RE: Prediction for Mid-Atlantic 25 / 3 / 2017 - by Roger Hunter - 04-17-2017, 03:27 PM

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