Post Seismic Observation 5 / 3 / 2017
#1
I have been engaging in an unusual test recently, were I have been postulating a hypothesis related to post seismic locations. There is no credible evidence currently available to back this up, but two words "money" and "mouth" comes to mind.  So I thought I would try a one man observational test to see if real-time data and recent historic records show anything worth investigating.  The format is similar to the RBD test, but the numbers are repetitive for the sake of simplicity.

The idea behind this is to determine 4 seismic locations from one signal, and further determine which location or locations have the best chance of producing a seismic event within a given window of time.  The data used will be familiar to those that regularly monitor space data, and I will dispense with altering any times fore the sake of keeping to "what you see is what you get".

   

This image was taken from the EPAM proton monitor on the 2nd March (as the date top of image shows), this is the single signal that I am working on for this purpose.  It is quite insignificant really compared to most, but the idea here is to use the time period between peaks.  I calculated time of first peak from the second trace down (orange) as being 19:34 ut . Second time was taken from the last peak in the top trace (red) as being 20:54 ut. If I interpret these times as dawn/dusk sunrise/sunset and use them in the same manner as the RBD test, then I could imply the 1 hour 20 minute period was equivalent to sunset to dusk, or dawn to sunrise somewhere in the world. 

Determining locations is then quite a simple process, especially if you are accustom to using the "time and date" maps I have described previously.  Firstly, input the start time of 19:34 ut on the map, then using a fine tip pen carefully draw a line on the screen along the Dawn threshold between Japan and the South coast of Australia.  Draw a second line along the sunset threshold between the Azores (Northern Mid-Atlantic) and the South Atlantic finishing somewhere level with the South Sandwich Islands.

Secondly, input the last time of 20:54 ut on the map, you will now see the points where the sunrise threshold makes contact with the Dawn line in the East, and the Dusk threshold makes contact with the sunset line in the West ... you now have a basic determination of 4 locations.  I googled these points and compared the times in the signal with http://www.suncalc.net to get an accurate fix.  The bearings calculated as; East of Oqasawara Island, Japan 143' 03' E - 27' 48' N ..... South Australia 135' 07' E - 27' 48' S ..... South of the Azores 23' 25' W - 30' 57' N ..... Southern Mid-Atlantic Ridge 15' 36' W - 27' 32' S

I then sourced matching post seismic time data from the EMSC quake site, beginning with the 1st January.  Apologies because the following is a bit repetitive ...

 Data relevant to Oqasawara, Japan

 3rd Jan M 5.6 India-Bangladesh Border Region .......... 09:09:02 ut
             Dusk on bearing 143' 03 E - 27' 48' N ........... 09:09 ut

 3rd Jan M 5.4 Offshore Los Lagos, Chile .................... 21:19:08 ut
             Sunrise on bearing 143' 03' E - 27' 48' N ....... 21:20 ut

 7th Jan M 5.5 Sumba Region, Indonesia .................... 09:12:00 ut
             Dusk on bearing 143' 03' E - 27' 48' N ........... 09:12 ut

 3rd Feb M 5.7 Martinique Region, Windward Islands ... 19:54:23 ut
             Dawn on bearing 143' 03' E - 27' 48' N .......... 19:54 ut

15th Feb M 5.5 Northern Sumatra, Indonesia ............... 19:47:07 ut
              Dawn on bearing 143' 03' E - 27' 48' N .......... 19:47 ut

22nd Feb M 5.3 Scotia Sea .......................................... 08:25:34 ut
               Sunset on bearing 143' 03' E - 27' 48' N ........ 08:25 ut

 3rd Mar M 5.3 Hokkaido, Japan ................................... 08:27:36 ut
              Sunset on bearing 143' 03' E - 27' 48' N ......... 08:28 ut


Data relevant to Southern Mid-Atlantic Ridge

 4th Jan M 5.7 Fiji Region ............................................ 20:03:53 ut
             Sunset on bearing 15' 36' W - 27' 32' S ........... 20:03 ut

 6th Jan M 5.0 South Sumatra, Indonesia ....................... 06:15:55 ut
             Sunrise on bearing 15' 36' W - 27' 32' S ............ 06:15 ut

 3rd Feb M 5.7 Martinique Region, Windward Islands ...... 19:54:23 ut (refer to Japan!)
              Sunset on bearing 15' 36' W - 27' 32' S ............ 19:54 ut

15th Feb M 5.5 Northern Sumatra, Indonesia .................. 19:47:07 ut (refer to Japan!)
              Sunset on bearing 15' 36' W - 27' 32' S ............ 19:47 ut

22nd Feb M 5.2 Kepulauan Talaud, Indonesia ................. 05:31:45 ut
               Dawn on bearing 15' 36' W - 27' 32' S ............. 05:31 ut

 1st Mar M 5.2 Banda Sea .............................................. 06:59:41 ut
             Sunrise on bearing 15' 36' W - 27' 32' S ............. 06:59 ut


Data relevant to South Australia

10th Jan M 5.8 Rota Region, Northern Mariana Islands .... 10:01:33 ut
              Sunset on bearing 135' 07' E - 27' 48' S ............ 10:01 ut

11th Feb M 5.2 Mindanao, Philippines .............................. 20:40:11 ut
              Sunrise on bearing 135' 07' E - 27' 48' S ............ 20:41 ut


Data relevant to the Azores

11th Feb M 5.2 Mindanao, Philippines .............................. 20:40:11 ut (refer to Australia!)
              Dusk on bearing 23' 25' W - 30' 57' N ................ 20:40 ut

26th Feb M 5.5 Vanuatu .................................................. 06:44:21 ut
              Dawn on bearing 23' 25' W - 30' 57' N ............... 06:44 ut


 I have compiled this information using readily available online data, each location has an equal chance of securing a given amount of  data times from the quake list.  What stand out here is, the two locations that have acquired the most times, are also the most likely candidates to produce a seismic event greater than 5+.  This is simple calculation that anyone can check, and has been derived from one space data signal.

Granted, some of my idea's do not pay off , others are relegated to chance through insufficient data. Several of my recent predictions have been based on this on this kind of format, though this one is more experiment than prediction because I am not including my own data. However, giving this a 30 window from the time of this post, and a +/- 1' margin, then as per Roger's advice it may be considered credible for investigation should an actual event occur.

   

If I find any thing of interest relevant to this thread, I will include it here as and when it is sourced. This image shows an unimpressive peak in the green trace at 08:30 ut on 3rd March.  Sunset on bearing 143' 03' E - 27' 48' N was at 08:30 ut on this day. 

This might be akin to Earthwaves in house entertainment ... but somebody might find it interesting!


Duffy (20:38 ut 5th March)




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Post Seismic Observation 5 / 3 / 2017 - by Duffy - 03-05-2017, 08:38 PM

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