[Roger Hunter]

(12-04-2016, 03:37 PM)Duffy Wrote:

(12-03-2016, 12:16 AM)Duffy Wrote:

(11-09-2016, 06:43 PM)Duffy Wrote:

(11-05-2016, 10:30 PM)Duffy Wrote: Prediction (J42)

Longitude .......... 130' 40' E

Latitude ............. 5' 30' S

Error .................. +/- 2'

Magnitude .......... 6 - 7

Location ............. Eastern Banda Sea Region

Start Date .......... 22:30 ut  5th Nov

Expiry Date ......... 00:00 ut  5th Dec

Duffy

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Update ... New data relating to this prediction, now places latitude and longitude at 7' 50' N by 127' 0' E ... Location is Philippine Trench, Southeast Philippines.

Duffy  (18:43 ut  9th Nov)

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Update ... new data now places longitude and latitude for this prediction at 125' 24' E by 11' 52' N

Location is Eastern Samar, Philippines.

Been predicting to a schedule ... it's now finished, so I'm cleaning up my mess ... little late here, but who know's !

Duffy  ( 00:16 ut  3rd Dec)  

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M 5.7 Kepulauan Talaud, Indonesia 05:24 ut  4th Dec at bearing 127' 51' E by 4' 30' N

Came here yesterday to clean up my mess, and end up with a bigger one ... or so it would seem !
Scientifically, I made an error of judgement because re-checking the data today, a signal still remains for Eastern Samar 7 hours after this 5.7 event occurred.  The area is highly active, so one close signal has been mistaken for another. I do have data to back this up, but nobody here bothers with data ... it's just a formality on my part to offer it for analysis.

Rationally, it would normally be seen as a strange move to alter a prediction after 29 days, with two days remaining, I have altered others before, that have turned out to be " correct answers ", but I have usually done this within a week or so of posting the prediction.  If what I see on the screen before me is correct ... Samar, will go off in the next 30 days !  I'll not be predicting it this time, because my method puts the odds in my favour anyway. 

I realise I have already been written off with my prediction technique ...  again, I'm only here to put this in public record, so the future will at least have the chance to deliberate "my" mistakes !

Duffy

Duffy;

I understand your disappointment with your reception here but all you need to do is tighten your predictions from 30 days to 3 days, thus reducing the chance probability to believable levels.

Roger