Logout 
Portal 
Forum
Search
Members
Help 
12-31-2015, 11:08 AM
Hi Duffy, since I post here, and some people know who I am, and I work in Turkey among other places, and I have friends and professional colleagues in Turkey, I have to post the following. Sorry. Keep posting please, we love you, but, there is a tiny chance your prediction will get out and cause panic. Past earthquakes in Turkey have caused tens of thousands of fatalities. We work with a group in Izmir, Turkey, and there may have been a quake there with 100,000+ fatalities a few centuries ago. Now your prediction is confused, with longitudes far east of Turkey.
Everyone else. I have seen no evidence that Duffy can predict earthquakes. Recently he has been posting one prediction after the other, with no evaluation of the previous prediction by Duffy (I need to read Roger's). From what I have seen, none of these predictions could be matched with a significant earthquake. Yes, there are places in Turkey that can have M7.5 earthquakes, with the maximum magnitude maybe to 8. But there is no particular reason to think one of these will occur in January (beyond the long-term odds). So, yes, get your buildings safer, and share data better!
Everyone else. I have seen no evidence that Duffy can predict earthquakes. Recently he has been posting one prediction after the other, with no evaluation of the previous prediction by Duffy (I need to read Roger's). From what I have seen, none of these predictions could be matched with a significant earthquake. Yes, there are places in Turkey that can have M7.5 earthquakes, with the maximum magnitude maybe to 8. But there is no particular reason to think one of these will occur in January (beyond the long-term odds). So, yes, get your buildings safer, and share data better!