[Island Chris]

Leonardo Seeber and John Armbruster of Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory got on a plane with seismometers the day after the 1999 Izmit earthquake, and unlike everyone else, put the instruments up near the west end of the rupture. They then recorded a 3D history (=4D) of seismicity leading to the following M7+ Duzce. This is published somewhere.

I suspect there was some precursor for today's earthquake. The question is whether the area is instrumented enough to see it (or whether foreshocks, if any, were large enough). I wonder if anything could be seen from satellite data.

Is of interest to other areas including southern California. For example, there was discussion 20 years ago about a big San Andreas earthquake rupturing together with the Sierra Madre (oblique?) thrust, as some sort of worst case. There could be a delay between quakes of hours, months, decades. So, the question would be, when the big central San Andreas quake occurs, do you do anything about possible triggered/delayed events? Lower reservoir levels? Wait, there is little water in the reservoirs. I think you might only do something if there was some pattern of seismicity or other things....but in next decades you probably will still not know what is coming.

Chris