(01-26-2017, 12:08 AM)Roger Hunter Wrote:

(01-25-2017, 11:57 PM)Duffy Wrote: Roger;

I know you said nobody is interested in mag 4's, but I ran a random selection in the name of curiosity, to see if they had the same connection as the 5's ... I was surprised at the results. here are a few that stood out most ...

20th Jan M 4.3 Guerrero, Mexico ... 98' W ................................................................................................. 07:32:46 ut
                      Transition of night to day at bearing 40' 19' W - 1' 23' S (4th Jan) occurred at ...................... 07:33 ut
                      Transition of day to night at bearing 171' 50' W - 20' 20' S (18th Jan) occurred at ................. 07:33 ut
                      Transition of night to day at bearing 49' 35' W - 21' 52' S (10th Jan) occurred at ................... 07:32 ut

20th Jan M 4.1 Kuril Islands ... 155' E ........................................................................................................ 08:06:40 ut
                      Sunset at bearing 149' 38' E - 5' 22' N (6th Jan) occurred at ................................................. 08:07 ut
                      Transition of day to night at bearing 163' 59' E - 18' 06' N (12th Jan) occurred at .................. 08:07 ut

21st Jan M 4.4 Off Coast of El Salvador ... 89' W ........................................................................................ 07:31:29 ut
                      Transition of night to day at bearing 40' 19' W - 1' 23' S (4th Jan) occurred at ....................... 07:32 ut
                      Transition of night to day at bearing 49' 35' W - 21' 52' S (10th Jan) occurred at .................... 07:31 ut

21st Jan M 4.6 Southern Iran ... 57' E ........................................................................................................ 08:23:12 ut
                      Transition of day to night at bearing 175' 50' E - 21' 07' S (15th Jan) occurred at ................... 08:24 ut
                       Sunset at bearing 156' 12' E - 22' 29' S (6th Jan) occurred at ............................................... 08:23 ut
                       Sunset at bearing 144' 11' E - 9' 04' N (15th Jan) occurred at ...............................................08:23 ut

21st Jan M 4.2 Coquimbo, Chile ... 71' W ................................................................................................... 17:03:55 ut
                      Sunset at bearing 25' 36' E - 22' 19' S (7th Jan) occurred at ................................................. 17:04 ut
                      Sunrise at bearing 171' 50' W - 20' 20' S (18th Jan) occurred at ............................................ 17:04 ut

22nd Jan M 4.7 San Juan, Argentina ... 68' W ............................................................................................. 02:50:36 ut
                      Transition of day to night at bearing 100' 51' W - 20' 23' S (18th Jan) occurred at .................. 02:50 ut
                      Transition of day to night at bearing 112' 06' W - 4' 08' N (6th Jan) occurred at ..................... 02:50 ut

I was thinking it might be probable that mag 4's could be chance hits, but the last one listed here had me reconsidering. At 02:51 ut on the 22nd, it is sunrise in Southern Iran on 61' E, and officially night at 02:52 ut in Moss Landing, Monterey Bay, CA.  I have predictions at both locations, and you can appreciate I cannot test 20 - 30 mag 4's a day for further connections.

Apologies for the wavy lines , I have been looking at Sea mounds on Google Earth all day again. My fingers are tired and I feel like I've joined the Navy !



Duffy

Duffy;

Of course you get more hits with mag 4 quakes; there are more of them.
The point is the hit/miss ratio and the probability of a hit.

I could do the whole year in a second if I could just understand exactly what you're doing.

PLEASE explain exactly what and why as simple as possible.

Roger

(01-26-2017, 01:09 AM)Duffy Wrote:

(01-26-2017, 12:08 AM)Roger Hunter Wrote:

(01-25-2017, 11:57 PM)Duffy Wrote: Roger;

I know you said nobody is interested in mag 4's, but I ran a random selection in the name of curiosity, to see if they had the same connection as the 5's ... I was surprised at the results. here are a few that stood out most ...

20th Jan M 4.3 Guerrero, Mexico ... 98' W ................................................................................................. 07:32:46 ut
                      Transition of night to day at bearing 40' 19' W - 1' 23' S (4th Jan) occurred at ...................... 07:33 ut
                      Transition of day to night at bearing 171' 50' W - 20' 20' S (18th Jan) occurred at ................. 07:33 ut
                      Transition of night to day at bearing 49' 35' W - 21' 52' S (10th Jan) occurred at ................... 07:32 ut

20th Jan M 4.1 Kuril Islands ... 155' E ........................................................................................................ 08:06:40 ut
                      Sunset at bearing 149' 38' E - 5' 22' N (6th Jan) occurred at ................................................. 08:07 ut
                      Transition of day to night at bearing 163' 59' E - 18' 06' N (12th Jan) occurred at .................. 08:07 ut

21st Jan M 4.4 Off Coast of El Salvador ... 89' W ........................................................................................ 07:31:29 ut
                      Transition of night to day at bearing 40' 19' W - 1' 23' S (4th Jan) occurred at ....................... 07:32 ut
                      Transition of night to day at bearing 49' 35' W - 21' 52' S (10th Jan) occurred at .................... 07:31 ut

21st Jan M 4.6 Southern Iran ... 57' E ........................................................................................................ 08:23:12 ut
                      Transition of day to night at bearing 175' 50' E - 21' 07' S (15th Jan) occurred at ................... 08:24 ut
                       Sunset at bearing 156' 12' E - 22' 29' S (6th Jan) occurred at ............................................... 08:23 ut
                       Sunset at bearing 144' 11' E - 9' 04' N (15th Jan) occurred at ...............................................08:23 ut

21st Jan M 4.2 Coquimbo, Chile ... 71' W ................................................................................................... 17:03:55 ut
                      Sunset at bearing 25' 36' E - 22' 19' S (7th Jan) occurred at ................................................. 17:04 ut
                      Sunrise at bearing 171' 50' W - 20' 20' S (18th Jan) occurred at ............................................ 17:04 ut

22nd Jan M 4.7 San Juan, Argentina ... 68' W ............................................................................................. 02:50:36 ut
                      Transition of day to night at bearing 100' 51' W - 20' 23' S (18th Jan) occurred at .................. 02:50 ut
                      Transition of day to night at bearing 112' 06' W - 4' 08' N (6th Jan) occurred at ..................... 02:50 ut

I was thinking it might be probable that mag 4's could be chance hits, but the last one listed here had me reconsidering. At 02:51 ut on the 22nd, it is sunrise in Southern Iran on 61' E, and officially night at 02:52 ut in Moss Landing, Monterey Bay, CA.  I have predictions at both locations, and you can appreciate I cannot test 20 - 30 mag 4's a day for further connections.

Apologies for the wavy lines , I have been looking at Sea mounds on Google Earth all day again. My fingers are tired and I feel like I've joined the Navy !



Duffy

Duffy;

Of course you get more hits with mag 4 quakes; there are more of them.
The point is the hit/miss ratio and the probability of a hit.

I could do the whole year in a second if I could just understand exactly what you're doing.

PLEASE explain exactly what and why as simple as possible.

Roger

Duffy;

Quote:Have you verified what I asked ? or is THAT another hit/miss ratio statistic ?

I have no way to verify it.

Quote:The satellite feed stopped at 23:10 ut, the moon was in the corridor on 170' 15' E again ... why did it stop ?

Seriously? How could I possibly know?

Quote:Have you checked the hit/miss ratio of mag 4's during the other periods I mentioned, or is this just an obvious conclusion in your opinion ?

More quakes, more hits, obviously.

Quote:This is what's happening Roger, a) I get a signal from an undisclosed source which I convert to time and sun/moon positions. b) I post them here because for some unexplained reason, the terminator zones are in contact with these bearings, at the times .. most quakes occur.  c) I poss a question regarding their significance as a link with said events.   If you believe this is chance, and want to simulate what I do, then choose 24 bearings in the orbital path of the sun and moon ... and run the test 11 days before New moon.  This is "all" I do ... I just want an answer to my question, if your test shows similar results, we can conclude they are merely chance !

So far I can't. No way to get terminator zones. I found a program to get sunrise/set times but it wants zone and sun's altitude which I don't have.

I understand your frustration, indeed I share it but getting angry with me does not help.

If we could get on facebook and chat it might help.

Roger

(01-26-2017, 08:40 PM)Duffy Wrote: Roger; 

I'm not angry at you, in fact I am getting better at predicting your responses than I am the the quakes.  Despite all my efforts to determine significance, you always answer with "chance".  I'm not questioning your experience, but I am questioning how you can still come to this conclusion, when you don't have the necessary means to verify what I am stating.  I am really not seeing a good outcome with this ...

Speculation ... The satellite feed stopped because of El Salvador !   the feed stopped at 23:10 ut, the dawn terminator was running through 92' E Myanmar... 12 hours earlier at 11:10 ut it was through 89' W El Salvador on the opposite longitude. A 1 degree difference is accountable by the suns northward longitude motion over 12 hours, it alters time in the terminator zones.  I recorded the 11:10 ut disruption on my monitors, and recorded similar at 18:10 ut today ( CS 89' 20' W). Tromso Geophysical observatory recorded the same disruption; flux.phys.uit.no   select Tromso  

http://www.suncalc.net is an online terminator program that I use all the time. If you load it and click on "more detailed" in the right box, it gives you the zone times.

Sorry, I don't do face book, I don't have any friends left to chat too ... refer to speculation !

Duffy

(01-28-2017, 01:20 AM)Duffy Wrote: Roger;

Apologies for the miss-understanding, sometimes frustrated people speak out of turn without thinking, and get the wrong end of the stick ... or so I am told !.  Hope I can make it up by sharing something I discovered today, quite by chance (no pun intended), but I have to type the following formula first, before I can describe it.

27th Jan Satellite resumed operation today at ............................................................................................... 07:00 ut
             Centre of moon on 68' 53' E + 7.25 degrees West = 61' 38' E 
             Sunset at bearing 175' 50' E - 21' 07' S (15th Jan) occurred at .......................................................... 07:00 ut

28th Jan New Moon ..................................................................................................................................... 01:19:05 ut
             Centre of sun on 163' 27' E - 18' 11' S (12th Jan)                                                                                                                            Centre of moon on 163' 27' E - 15' 56' S  (12th Jan) + 7.25 degrees East = 170' 42' E - 15' 56' S ***
             Centre of moon on 163' 27' E + 7.25 degrees West = 156' 12' E (12th Jan)
             Transition of night to day at bearing 60' 30' E - 25' 0' N Iran/Pakistan border and Owen Fracture Zone  01:19:05 ut

             Centre of sun on 60' 30' E ............................................................................................................... 08:11 ut
             Transition of day to night at bearing 163' 59' E - 18' 06' N (12th Jan) occurs at .................................. 08:11 ut
             Sunset at bearing 149' 38' E - 5' 22' N (6th Jan) occurs at ................................................................. 08:11 ut

             Centre of sun on 57' 15' E ... opposite longitude = 122' 45' W ........................................................... 08:24 ut
             Centre of moon on 60' 49' E
             Transition of day to night at bearing 175' 50' E - 21' 07' S (15th Jan) occurs at .................................... 08:24 ut
             Sunset at bearing 156' 12' E - 22' 29' S (6th Jan) occurs at ................................................................. 08:24 ut

             Centre of sun on 93' 29' W + 7.5 degrees West = 100' 59' W (18th Jan) ............................................. 18:27 ut
             Centre of moon on 84' 50' W + 7.25 degrees East = 77' 35' W (15th Jan .............................................18:27 ut
             Sunset at bearing 170' 42' E - 15' 56' S ** (refer to New Moon time) occurs at .....................................18:27 ut


This formula is a simple attempt to see if the data in the table is relevant to determining time of event. The combinations focus on a region of Southern Iran, California and Central America ... it's mostly here for the record, and not as an official prediction.

Roger; I believe I may have found something of interest, that gives reason to suggest these co-ordinates are related to the current period .. and not constant. When I was trying to determine why the satellite feed resumed, at the same time as sunset on 175' East. I noticed it's sunset was constant on 07:01 ut between 4th and 26th Jan. It changed to 07:00 ut today, approx 24 hours before new moon. The rest of it's zones continued to change by one or two minutes each day during these dates.  Then I checked 163' East because it figures prominently with New Moon, and found it's sunrise time had remained constant at 19:39 ut from 8th Jan, and changes to 19:38 ut at 00:00 ut 28th, again its other zones changed day by day.  156' East has a constant, which is puzzling because it is sunset at 07:57 ut between 28th May and 18th June, but this one caught my eye because the sun is on 60' 45' E at 07:57 ut during this period. The last one I checked was 103' East because it has the furthest northern latitude (18' 34' N) of all the other co-ordinates.  And was surprised to find it's constant related to the night to day terminator at 22:08 ut, between 3rd and 18th June. The constants are related to the sun's lateral position, relative to Earth, at a specific time of year.  The sun has recently been at it's furthest Southerly latitude, and remained there for several days. It is now moving North and changing the constants as it does so. It means that any influence the co-ordinates had in relation to the quakes, is being removed because the constants are changing. The last two times I did this, any correlation became minimal after new moon ... that's why this experiment is being terminated after 01:19:05 ut 28th Jan .  I have not had sufficient time to investigate the other bearings, but I would imagine similar constants will be found. A preliminary run through the year, at bearing 175' East, only revealed the constant described, therefore it would suggest any other correlations would be random!  I have a theory why these co-ordinates seem to have some significance, but I'll wait for your input on this description first ... you may have noticed, I am quite adept at getting wrong ends of stick's !

I calculated more data from source today, but it is to late to include in this experiment. I'm making report of it here in case it figures in the current cycle. For some reason, it is also a partial repeat; 27th Jan 19:39 ut ... CS 109' 02' W - 18' 15' S ........ CM 112' 0' W - 16' 28' S.   What stands out here is 112' W has repeated again from 6th Jan data line, and 19:39 ut is the same as the sunrise constant at 163' 59' E - 18' 06' N ... 

Recent Events ...

26th Jan M 5.1 Near East Coast Honshu, Japan ... 142' 24' E - 40' 12' N .......................................................... 08:06:29 ut
                 Sunset at bearing 149' 38' E - 5' 22' N (6th Jan) occurred at ......................................................... 08:07 ut

27th Jan M 5.1 Antofagasta, Chile ... 68' 32' W - 22' 30' S ............................................................................... 13:23:30 ut
                 Sunrise at bearing 117' 12' W - 22' 38' S (4th Jan) occurred at ...................................................... 13:24 ut

27th Jan M 5.3 Ethiopia ... 38' 48' E - 7' 37' N ................................................................................................. 16:29:22 ut
                 Transition of day to night at bearing 54' 29' E - 22' 27' S (6th Jan) occurred at ................................ 16:30 ut

27th Jan M 5.6 Eastern Sichuan, China ... 104' 54' E - 28' 09' N ...... CM 101' 46' W (18th Jan) ........................... 18:46:37 ut



Duffy (01:19 ut !)

(01-28-2017, 12:39 PM)Duffy Wrote: Roger;

Believe me, I don't think your loosing it ... it is more likely that this is in a different context to what you have had experience with, and are struggling to know how to deal with it. In truth, I don't fully understand this either, but the fact is, I posted data that has resulted in showing some kind of inherent link with earthquakes. I have no agenda with this except redemption, and I have no idea where this will lead, so when you ask what exactly am I doing ... then I am posting data, and want somebody to tell me if this has anything to do with earthquakes !  

New moon occurred at 01:19:05 ut, it was followed by a mag 5 in Chile at 01:27:27 ut,  sunset at bearing 100' 51' W - 20' 23' S (18th Jan) occurred at 01:28 ut.  Eight minutes Roger ... it followed with a temporal difference of 8 minutes ! The next 3 quakes have not hit a bearing, the sun is shutting them down as it heads North !

I recall some time ago, jesting with you guy's that if you wanted to find the answer to the earthquake problem, you should be looking up, not down.   I thought it an amusing remark at the time, because naivety with this subject dominated a professional approach ... it doesn't sound as amusing now does it ? 

I'm not shining you on ... so find a way to test this, or it will slip through your fingers !


Duffy

(01-28-2017, 02:53 PM)Roger Hunter Wrote:

(01-28-2017, 12:39 PM)Duffy Wrote: Roger;

Believe me, I don't think your loosing it ... it is more likely that this is in a different context to what you have had experience with, and are struggling to know how to deal with it. In truth, I don't fully understand this either, but the fact is, I posted data that has resulted in showing some kind of inherent link with earthquakes. I have no agenda with this except redemption, and I have no idea where this will lead, so when you ask what exactly am I doing ... then I am posting data, and want somebody to tell me if this has anything to do with earthquakes !  

New moon occurred at 01:19:05 ut, it was followed by a mag 5 in Chile at 01:27:27 ut,  sunset at bearing 100' 51' W - 20' 23' S (18th Jan) occurred at 01:28 ut.  Eight minutes Roger ... it followed with a temporal difference of 8 minutes ! The next 3 quakes have not hit a bearing, the sun is shutting them down as it heads North !

I recall some time ago, jesting with you guy's that if you wanted to find the answer to the earthquake problem, you should be looking up, not down.   I thought it an amusing remark at the time, because naivety with this subject dominated a professional approach ... it doesn't sound as amusing now does it ? 

I'm not shining you on ... so find a way to test this, or it will slip through your fingers !


Duffy

Duffy;

I think a light just turned on. See if this is correct.

1) You get a signal on your screen

>> Not exactly ... but I'll say yes for now, to save complication

2) You find where sunrise/sunset is located at that time

>> No ... I find the exact position of the sun and moon at that time, in longitude and latitude relative to Earth.
      It is sunrise / sunset somewhere in the world every second, how would I know which to choose, and where to look ?

3) The longitudes for sunrise/sunset are flagged as significant locations for future quakes

>>  The longitudes are 180' pole to pole ... the angle of the terminator changes minute by minute over all longitudes ... again, it is sunrise / sunset every second, how would I know which part to flag ?   

4) Any 5+ quake located in any of those 4 longitude bands counts as a hit.
                                                                                                                                                                         >> There have been no hits by any quakes, on any of the selected co-ordinates during the experiments 11 day duration         ... only sunrise / sunset at the same time as 5+ quakes in other parts of the world.  To keep within the bounds of an         exact minute of sunrise time at any of the posted bearings, you are limited to +/- 20 arc minutes of longitude, and           15 arc minutes of latitude due to the angle of the terminator.

5) Same process for the moon.

>> Same as above

If I finally understand it, this means you have 8 significant longitudes per signal and 30 days for a quake to hit one.

>> If my calculations are correct, there are 129, 600 Sq degrees of Earths surface, the data I posted on the 16th                  Jan allows a marginal position of 5 Sq degrees per bearing, which equates to 70 Sq degrees for 16 bearings. On the
     16th and 17th Jan, there were 10 recorded sunrise / sunsets at the exact time 5+ quakes occurred. Up to the 25th          Jan, a further 40 Sq degrees was added making a total of 110 Sq degrees. 

8/360 is a pretty small window but you have a lot of quakes and a lot of time.

>> Ratio of 110 / 129,600 is a very small area, and the duration period of 11 days ... is a very small window !
      Bearing 77' 21' W - 20' 59' S had sunrise / sunset 4 times related to mag 5 quakes in 11 days ... what are the odds           on that happening ?


Duffy
      

(01-28-2017, 06:34 PM)Duffy Wrote:

(01-28-2017, 02:53 PM)Roger Hunter Wrote:

(01-28-2017, 12:39 PM)Duffy Wrote: Roger;

Believe me, I don't think your loosing it ... it is more likely that this is in a different context to what you have had experience with, and are struggling to know how to deal with it. In truth, I don't fully understand this either, but the fact is, I posted data that has resulted in showing some kind of inherent link with earthquakes. I have no agenda with this except redemption, and I have no idea where this will lead, so when you ask what exactly am I doing ... then I am posting data, and want somebody to tell me if this has anything to do with earthquakes !  

New moon occurred at 01:19:05 ut, it was followed by a mag 5 in Chile at 01:27:27 ut,  sunset at bearing 100' 51' W - 20' 23' S (18th Jan) occurred at 01:28 ut.  Eight minutes Roger ... it followed with a temporal difference of 8 minutes ! The next 3 quakes have not hit a bearing, the sun is shutting them down as it heads North !

I recall some time ago, jesting with you guy's that if you wanted to find the answer to the earthquake problem, you should be looking up, not down.   I thought it an amusing remark at the time, because naivety with this subject dominated a professional approach ... it doesn't sound as amusing now does it ? 

I'm not shining you on ... so find a way to test this, or it will slip through your fingers !


Duffy

Duffy;

I think a light just turned on. See if this is correct.

1) You get a signal on your screen

>> Not exactly ... but I'll say yes for now, to save complication

2) You find where sunrise/sunset is located at that time

>> No ... I find the exact position of the sun and moon at that time, in longitude and latitude relative to Earth.
      It is sunrise / sunset somewhere in the world every second, how would I know which to choose, and where to look ?

3) The longitudes for sunrise/sunset are flagged as significant locations for future quakes

>>  The longitudes are 180' pole to pole ... the angle of the terminator changes minute by minute over all longitudes ... again, it is sunrise / sunset every second, how would I know which part to flag ?   

4) Any 5+ quake located in any of those 4 longitude bands counts as a hit.
                                                                                                                                                                         >> There have been no hits by any quakes, on any of the selected co-ordinates during the experiments 11 day duration         ... only sunrise / sunset at the same time as 5+ quakes in other parts of the world.  To keep within the bounds of an         exact minute of sunrise time at any of the posted bearings, you are limited to +/- 20 arc minutes of longitude, and           15 arc minutes of latitude due to the angle of the terminator.

5) Same process for the moon.

>> Same as above

If I finally understand it, this means you have 8 significant longitudes per signal and 30 days for a quake to hit one.

>> If my calculations are correct, there are 129, 600 Sq degrees of Earths surface, the data I posted on the 16th                  Jan allows a marginal position of 5 Sq degrees per bearing, which equates to 70 Sq degrees for 16 bearings. On the
     16th and 17th Jan, there were 10 recorded sunrise / sunsets at the exact time 5+ quakes occurred. Up to the 25th          Jan, a further 40 Sq degrees was added making a total of 110 Sq degrees. 

8/360 is a pretty small window but you have a lot of quakes and a lot of time.

>> Ratio of 110 / 129,600 is a very small area, and the duration period of 11 days ... is a very small window !
      Bearing 77' 21' W - 20' 59' S had sunrise / sunset 4 times related to mag 5 quakes in 11 days ... what are the odds           on that happening ?


Duffy