Earthwaves Earth Sciences Forum

I have been engaging in an unusual test recently, were I have been postulating a hypothesis related to post seismic locations. There is no credible evidence currently available to back this up, but two words "money" and "mouth" comes to mind.  So I thought I would try a one man observational test to see if real-time data and recent historic records show anything worth investigating.  The format is similar to the RBD test, but the numbers are repetitive for the sake of simplicity.

The idea behind this is to determine 4 seismic locations from one signal, and further determine which location or locations have the best chance of producing a seismic event within a given window of time.  The data used will be familiar to those that regularly monitor space data, and I will dispense with altering any times fore the sake of keeping to "what you see is what you get".

[attachment=233]

This image was taken from the EPAM proton monitor on the 2nd March (as the date top of image shows), this is the single signal that I am working on for this purpose.  It is quite insignificant really compared to most, but the idea here is to use the time period between peaks.  I calculated time of first peak from the second trace down (orange) as being 19:34 ut . Second time was taken from the last peak in the top trace (red) as being 20:54 ut. If I interpret these times as dawn/dusk sunrise/sunset and use them in the same manner as the RBD test, then I could imply the 1 hour 20 minute period was equivalent to sunset to dusk, or dawn to sunrise somewhere in the world. 

Determining locations is then quite a simple process, especially if you are accustom to using the "time and date" maps I have described previously.  Firstly, input the start time of 19:34 ut on the map, then using a fine tip pen carefully draw a line on the screen along the Dawn threshold between Japan and the South coast of Australia.  Draw a second line along the sunset threshold between the Azores (Northern Mid-Atlantic) and the South Atlantic finishing somewhere level with the South Sandwich Islands.

Secondly, input the last time of 20:54 ut on the map, you will now see the points where the sunrise threshold makes contact with the Dawn line in the East, and the Dusk threshold makes contact with the sunset line in the West ... you now have a basic determination of 4 locations.  I googled these points and compared the times in the signal with http://www.suncalc.net to get an accurate fix.  The bearings calculated as; East of Oqasawara Island, Japan 143' 03' E - 27' 48' N ..... South Australia 135' 07' E - 27' 48' S ..... South of the Azores 23' 25' W - 30' 57' N ..... Southern Mid-Atlantic Ridge 15' 36' W - 27' 32' S

I then sourced matching post seismic time data from the EMSC quake site, beginning with the 1st January.  Apologies because the following is a bit repetitive ...

 Data relevant to Oqasawara, Japan

 3rd Jan M 5.6 India-Bangladesh Border Region .......... 09:09:02 ut
             Dusk on bearing 143' 03 E - 27' 48' N ........... 09:09 ut

 3rd Jan M 5.4 Offshore Los Lagos, Chile .................... 21:19:08 ut
             Sunrise on bearing 143' 03' E - 27' 48' N ....... 21:20 ut

 7th Jan M 5.5 Sumba Region, Indonesia .................... 09:12:00 ut
             Dusk on bearing 143' 03' E - 27' 48' N ........... 09:12 ut

 3rd Feb M 5.7 Martinique Region, Windward Islands ... 19:54:23 ut
             Dawn on bearing 143' 03' E - 27' 48' N .......... 19:54 ut

15th Feb M 5.5 Northern Sumatra, Indonesia ............... 19:47:07 ut
              Dawn on bearing 143' 03' E - 27' 48' N .......... 19:47 ut

22nd Feb M 5.3 Scotia Sea .......................................... 08:25:34 ut
               Sunset on bearing 143' 03' E - 27' 48' N ........ 08:25 ut

 3rd Mar M 5.3 Hokkaido, Japan ................................... 08:27:36 ut
              Sunset on bearing 143' 03' E - 27' 48' N ......... 08:28 ut


Data relevant to Southern Mid-Atlantic Ridge

 4th Jan M 5.7 Fiji Region ............................................ 20:03:53 ut
             Sunset on bearing 15' 36' W - 27' 32' S ........... 20:03 ut

 6th Jan M 5.0 South Sumatra, Indonesia ....................... 06:15:55 ut
             Sunrise on bearing 15' 36' W - 27' 32' S ............ 06:15 ut

 3rd Feb M 5.7 Martinique Region, Windward Islands ...... 19:54:23 ut (refer to Japan!)
              Sunset on bearing 15' 36' W - 27' 32' S ............ 19:54 ut

15th Feb M 5.5 Northern Sumatra, Indonesia .................. 19:47:07 ut (refer to Japan!)
              Sunset on bearing 15' 36' W - 27' 32' S ............ 19:47 ut

22nd Feb M 5.2 Kepulauan Talaud, Indonesia ................. 05:31:45 ut
               Dawn on bearing 15' 36' W - 27' 32' S ............. 05:31 ut

 1st Mar M 5.2 Banda Sea .............................................. 06:59:41 ut
             Sunrise on bearing 15' 36' W - 27' 32' S ............. 06:59 ut


Data relevant to South Australia

10th Jan M 5.8 Rota Region, Northern Mariana Islands .... 10:01:33 ut
              Sunset on bearing 135' 07' E - 27' 48' S ............ 10:01 ut

11th Feb M 5.2 Mindanao, Philippines .............................. 20:40:11 ut
              Sunrise on bearing 135' 07' E - 27' 48' S ............ 20:41 ut


Data relevant to the Azores

11th Feb M 5.2 Mindanao, Philippines .............................. 20:40:11 ut (refer to Australia!)
              Dusk on bearing 23' 25' W - 30' 57' N ................ 20:40 ut

26th Feb M 5.5 Vanuatu .................................................. 06:44:21 ut
              Dawn on bearing 23' 25' W - 30' 57' N ............... 06:44 ut


 I have compiled this information using readily available online data, each location has an equal chance of securing a given amount of  data times from the quake list.  What stand out here is, the two locations that have acquired the most times, are also the most likely candidates to produce a seismic event greater than 5+.  This is simple calculation that anyone can check, and has been derived from one space data signal.

Granted, some of my idea's do not pay off , others are relegated to chance through insufficient data. Several of my recent predictions have been based on this on this kind of format, though this one is more experiment than prediction because I am not including my own data. However, giving this a 30 window from the time of this post, and a +/- 1' margin, then as per Roger's advice it may be considered credible for investigation should an actual event occur.

[attachment=234]

If I find any thing of interest relevant to this thread, I will include it here as and when it is sourced. This image shows an unimpressive peak in the green trace at 08:30 ut on 3rd March.  Sunset on bearing 143' 03' E - 27' 48' N was at 08:30 ut on this day. 

This might be akin to Earthwaves in house entertainment ... but somebody might find it interesting!


Duffy (20:38 ut 5th March)

(03-05-2017, 08:38 PM)Duffy Wrote: [ -> ]I have been engaging in an unusual test recently, were I have been postulating a hypothesis related to post seismic locations. There is no credible evidence currently available to back this up, but two words "money" and "mouth" comes to mind.  So I thought I would try a one man observational test to see if real-time data and recent historic records show anything worth investigating.  The format is similar to the RBD test, but the numbers are repetitive for the sake of simplicity.

The idea behind this is to determine 4 seismic locations from one signal, and further determine which location or locations have the best chance of producing a seismic event within a given window of time.  The data used will be familiar to those that regularly monitor space data, and I will dispense with altering any times fore the sake of keeping to "what you see is what you get".



This image was taken from the EPAM proton monitor on the 2nd March (as the date top of image shows), this is the single signal that I am working on for this purpose.  It is quite insignificant really compared to most, but the idea here is to use the time period between peaks.  I calculated time of first peak from the second trace down (orange) as being 19:34 ut . Second time was taken from the last peak in the top trace (red) as being 20:54 ut. If I interpret these times as dawn/dusk sunrise/sunset and use them in the same manner as the RBD test, then I could imply the 1 hour 20 minute period was equivalent to sunset to dusk, or dawn to sunrise somewhere in the world. 

Determining locations is then quite a simple process, especially if you are accustom to using the "time and date" maps I have described previously.  Firstly, input the start time of 19:34 ut on the map, then using a fine tip pen carefully draw a line on the screen along the Dawn threshold between Japan and the South coast of Australia.  Draw a second line along the sunset threshold between the Azores (Northern Mid-Atlantic) and the South Atlantic finishing somewhere level with the South Sandwich Islands.

Secondly, input the last time of 20:54 ut on the map, you will now see the points where the sunrise threshold makes contact with the Dawn line in the East, and the Dusk threshold makes contact with the sunset line in the West ... you now have a basic determination of 4 locations.  I googled these points and compared the times in the signal with http://www.suncalc.net to get an accurate fix.  The bearings calculated as; East of Oqasawara Island, Japan 143' 03' E - 27' 48' N ..... South Australia 135' 07' E - 27' 48' S ..... South of the Azores 23' 25' W - 30' 57' N ..... Southern Mid-Atlantic Ridge 15' 36' W - 27' 32' S

I then sourced matching post seismic time data from the EMSC quake site, beginning with the 1st January.  Apologies because the following is a bit repetitive ...

 Data relevant to Oqasawara, Japan

 3rd Jan M 5.6 India-Bangladesh Border Region .......... 09:09:02 ut
             Dusk on bearing 143' 03 E - 27' 48' N ........... 09:09 ut

 3rd Jan M 5.4 Offshore Los Lagos, Chile .................... 21:19:08 ut
             Sunrise on bearing 143' 03' E - 27' 48' N ....... 21:20 ut

 7th Jan M 5.5 Sumba Region, Indonesia .................... 09:12:00 ut
             Dusk on bearing 143' 03' E - 27' 48' N ........... 09:12 ut

 3rd Feb M 5.7 Martinique Region, Windward Islands ... 19:54:23 ut
             Dawn on bearing 143' 03' E - 27' 48' N .......... 19:54 ut

15th Feb M 5.5 Northern Sumatra, Indonesia ............... 19:47:07 ut
              Dawn on bearing 143' 03' E - 27' 48' N .......... 19:47 ut

22nd Feb M 5.3 Scotia Sea .......................................... 08:25:34 ut
               Sunset on bearing 143' 03' E - 27' 48' N ........ 08:25 ut

 3rd Mar M 5.3 Hokkaido, Japan ................................... 08:27:36 ut
              Sunset on bearing 143' 03' E - 27' 48' N ......... 08:28 ut


Data relevant to Southern Mid-Atlantic Ridge

 4th Jan M 5.7 Fiji Region ............................................ 20:03:53 ut
             Sunset on bearing 15' 36' W - 27' 32' S ........... 20:03 ut

 6th Jan M 5.0 South Sumatra, Indonesia ....................... 06:15:55 ut
             Sunrise on bearing 15' 36' W - 27' 32' S ............ 06:15 ut

 3rd Feb M 5.7 Martinique Region, Windward Islands ...... 19:54:23 ut (refer to Japan!)
              Sunset on bearing 15' 36' W - 27' 32' S ............ 19:54 ut

15th Feb M 5.5 Northern Sumatra, Indonesia .................. 19:47:07 ut (refer to Japan!)
              Sunset on bearing 15' 36' W - 27' 32' S ............ 19:47 ut

22nd Feb M 5.2 Kepulauan Talaud, Indonesia ................. 05:31:45 ut
               Dawn on bearing 15' 36' W - 27' 32' S ............. 05:31 ut

 1st Mar M 5.2 Banda Sea .............................................. 06:59:41 ut
             Sunrise on bearing 15' 36' W - 27' 32' S ............. 06:59 ut


Data relevant to South Australia

10th Jan M 5.8 Rota Region, Northern Mariana Islands .... 10:01:33 ut
              Sunset on bearing 135' 07' E - 27' 48' S ............ 10:01 ut

11th Feb M 5.2 Mindanao, Philippines .............................. 20:40:11 ut
              Sunrise on bearing 135' 07' E - 27' 48' S ............ 20:41 ut


Data relevant to the Azores

11th Feb M 5.2 Mindanao, Philippines .............................. 20:40:11 ut (refer to Australia!)
              Dusk on bearing 23' 25' W - 30' 57' N ................ 20:40 ut

26th Feb M 5.5 Vanuatu .................................................. 06:44:21 ut
              Dawn on bearing 23' 25' W - 30' 57' N ............... 06:44 ut


 I have compiled this information using readily available online data, each location has an equal chance of securing a given amount of  data times from the quake list.  What stand out here is, the two locations that have acquired the most times, are also the most likely candidates to produce a seismic event greater than 5+.  This is simple calculation that anyone can check, and has been derived from one space data signal.

Granted, some of my idea's do not pay off , others are relegated to chance through insufficient data. Several of my recent predictions have been based on this on this kind of format, though this one is more experiment than prediction because I am not including my own data. However, giving this a 30 window from the time of this post, and a +/- 1' margin, then as per Roger's advice it may be considered credible for investigation should an actual event occur.



If I find any thing of interest relevant to this thread, I will include it here as and when it is sourced. This image shows an unimpressive peak in the green trace at 08:30 ut on 3rd March.  Sunset on bearing 143' 03' E - 27' 48' N was at 08:30 ut on this day. 

This might be akin to Earthwaves in house entertainment ... but somebody might find it interesting!


Duffy (20:38 ut 5th March)

Duffy;

But aren't you showing that this has already been found successful?

Are you drawing lines on your monitor?

I don't see how I can evaluate this but what you lack is the chance of success. That I can figure for you IF a specific location can be defined for the expected quake.

Meanwhile I'm going nuts trying to find the error in this program. It's a sun/moon location program I've used for years which now refuses to give correct answers. Very frustrating. 

Roger

Roger;

The event lists are there to show sunrise/sunset dawn/dusk associations with specific locations from the 1st January.

The specific locations are;

1.  143' 03' E - 27' 48' N East of Oqasawara Island, South of Japan
2.   15' 36' W - 27' 32' S Southern Mid-Atlantic Ridge
3.  135' 07' E - 27' 48' S South Australia
4.   23' 25' W - 30' 57' N South of the Azores

Yes! I draw on my screen with a fine tip felt pen ... always have done. Very low tech compared to using a computer program, but if I have a problem with my pen, I can always get another one out of my drawer.

Duffy

(03-06-2017, 01:52 PM)Duffy Wrote: [ -> ]Roger;

The event lists are there to show sunrise/sunset dawn/dusk associations with specific locations from the 1st January.

The specific locations are;

1.  143' 03' E - 27' 48' N East of Oqasawara Island, South of Japan
2.   15' 36' W - 27' 32' S Southern Mid-Atlantic Ridge
3.  135' 07' E - 27' 48' S South Australia
4.   23' 25' W - 30' 57' N South of the Azores

Yes! I draw on my screen with a fine tip felt pen ... always have done. Very low tech compared to using a computer program, but if I have a problem with my pen, I can always get another one out of my drawer.

Duffy

Duffy;

Then you must have an old monitor with a glass screen. But why draw on it at all?

Now your prediction is that these 4 locations will have a mag 5+ quake in the month of March?

Roger

It's not a prediction, I am experimenting with post seismic connections to demonstrate a method I used in previous predictions. A 30 day window is used because any experiment needs a completion time. 

The number of quakes associated with 1. and 2. exceed those of 3. and 4. The locations of 1./2. are obviously in regions of frequent activity, so the questions are; Do the higher numbers indicate a greater attraction to these locations ... Do the higher numbers indicate a greater magnitude ... Why would Japan connect with mostly Dawn/Dusk, and the Atlantic with Sunrise/Sunset.  

I know most of these answers because I have already used them, everything is online so these facts can be checked out. I only expect 1. and 2. to exceed mag 5 (if they happen at all) but check out all four and see what you come up with.

I am using an old Toshiba running on XP, so it doesn't matter about the screen. It is also the only reason I have been able to get back on line. Modern equipment with sophisticated possessors don't work here. I gave my reasons last year, but you guy's probably thought I was clowning around.  Somethings are best left in the past because an honest scientific approach doesn't work with everything !.


Duffy

(03-06-2017, 05:07 PM)Duffy Wrote: [ -> ]It's not a prediction, I am experimenting with post seismic connections to demonstrate a method I used in previous predictions. A 30 day window is used because any experiment needs a completion time. 

The number of quakes associated with 1. and 2. exceed those of 3. and 4. The locations of 1./2. are obviously in regions of frequent activity, so the questions are; Do the higher numbers indicate a greater attraction to these locations ... Do the higher numbers indicate a greater magnitude ... Why would Japan connect with mostly Dawn/Dusk, and the Atlantic with Sunrise/Sunset.  

I know most of these answers because I have already used them, everything is online so these facts can be checked out. I only expect 1. and 2. to exceed mag 5 (if they happen at all) but check out all four and see what you come up with.

I am using an old Toshiba running on XP, so it doesn't matter about the screen. It is also the only reason I have been able to get back on line. Modern equipment with sophisticated possessors don't work here. I gave my reasons last year, but you guy's probably thought I was clowning around.  Somethings are best left in the past because an honest scientific approach doesn't work with everything !.


Duffy

Duffy;

Interesting that you run XP, it's my favorite OS. Most of my programs will run on it because I work in TrueBasic which has a DOS version.

My current machine is a Dell Precision T3500 running Win 7, with 24 Gb RAM and a terrabyte HDD that I bought used for $45. XP won't install on it and 7 doesn't run DOS so I have to run the newer version of TB.

If you don't know what I'm talking about don't worry about it. I'm just rambling.

Roger

[attachment=236]

This image shows a proton spike had occurred at 06:56 ut (green trace), sunrise at bearing 15' 36' W - 27' 32' S was at 07:00 ut.  The closest sunrise threshold at this time was on longitude 14' 39' W, which equates to 52 arc minutes or 0.78 degrees East of the selected location.  I checked historic records, and sourced the last closest 5+ event to this location, which occurred 2nd Feb 2005 on bearing 14' 39' W - 29' 36' S.   As a point of seismic connection interest, it was also sunset at 06:56 ut today on bearing 171' 24' E - 22' 52' S ... epicentre of the 5.5 Southeast of loyalty Islands quake at 10:55:39 ut.

I have been trying some time scenarios with these locations, and came up with the following;

143' 03' E - 27' 48' N South of Japan
 15' 36' W - 27' 32' S South Atlantic
149' 21' E -  6' 01' S New Britain Region P.N.G.

The last one shows the co-ordinates of the 5th March M 6.3 epicentre in the stated country.  On 2nd April all three will connect via the terminator thresholds.  At 18:56 ut, it will be Dawn on the Japan bearing, Dawn on the P.N.G bearing, and Sunset on the Atlantic bearing ... this is just an observation and doesn't mean any quakes will actually occur at this time.

Roger

My wife is the computer buff in our house, so no problem ... I had your details translated !

I bought a new $750 Dell Inspiron 17 5000 series last October.  The guy in the store told me this was the latest model from the Dell franchise, and there was very little this machine was not capable of coping with ... unfortunately, it doesn't seem to be compatible with sunrise signals .


Duffy

(03-07-2017, 08:20 PM)Duffy Wrote: [ -> ]Duffy;

Quote:This image shows a proton spike had occurred at 06:56 ut (green trace), sunrise at bearing 15' 36' W - 27' 32' S was at 07:00 ut.  The closest sunrise threshold at this time was on longitude 14' 39' W, which equates to 52 arc minutes or 0.78 degrees East of the selected location.  I checked historic records, and sourced the last closest 5+ event to this location, which occurred 2nd Feb 2005 on bearing 14' 39' W - 29' 36' S.   As a point of seismic connection interest, it was also sunset at 06:56 ut today on bearing 171' 24' E - 22' 52' S ... epicentre of the 5.5 Southeast of loyalty Islands quake at 10:55:39 ut.

I have been trying some time scenarios with these locations, and came up with the following;

143' 03' E - 27' 48' N South of Japan
 15' 36' W - 27' 32' S South Atlantic
149' 21' E -  6' 01' S New Britain Region P.N.G.

The last one shows the co-ordinates of the 5th March M 6.3 epicentre in the stated country.  On 2nd April all three will connect via the terminator thresholds.  At 18:56 ut, it will be Dawn on the Japan bearing, Dawn on the P.N.G bearing, and Sunset on the Atlantic bearing ... this is just an observation and doesn't mean any quakes will actually occur at this time.

I have no idea how you're doing all this.

Quote:My wife is the computer buff in our house, so no problem ... I had your details translated !

I bought a new $750 Dell Inspiron 17 5000 series last October.  The guy in the store told me this was the latest model from the Dell franchise, and there was very little this machine was not capable of coping with ... unfortunately, it doesn't seem to be compatible with sunrise signals .

It should handle it easily. That laptop runs about $500 here now.

I forgot to mention earlier that I can send you custom programs that you can use to repeat what I'm doing, once I get them to do what I'm wanting to do.

If that interests you... 

Or I may be able to write special programs to do things you have in mind.

Roger

Roger;

I appreciate the offer but I work best with old school methods, but maybe it is worth bearing in mind for the future.

I have another point of interest I forgot to include earlier;  On the 2nd March at 19:34 ut, it was Dawn on bearing 141' 57' E - 41' 34' N, these are the co-ordinates at the epicentre of the M 5.7 Hokkaido, Japan quake at 15:45:40 ut today. The 2nd March 19:34 ut was the time the signal appeared in the space data, and it connects Hokkaido, Japan with the other selected locations, via the terminator thresholds on the same day !  

I am doing this using the same method you and Brian have currently deemed "insignificant", I am simply using someone else's data instead ... am I gaining any credible attention with this yet ?

Its my birthday next week, so if your thinking of getting me something ... a 10 degree corridor would be nice !


Duffy

(03-07-2017, 10:57 PM)Duffy Wrote: [ -> ]Duffy;

Quote:I appreciate the offer but I work best with old school methods, but maybe it is worth bearing in mind for the future.

Sure. Someday you'll be thinking "If only I had a program to do ...."

Quote:I have another point of interest I forgot to include earlier;  On the 2nd March at 19:34 ut, it was Dawn on bearing 141' 57' E - 41' 34' N, these are the co-ordinates at the epicentre of the M 5.7 Hokkaido, Japan quake at 15:45:40 ut today. The 2nd March 19:34 ut was the time the signal appeared in the space data, and it connects Hokkaido, Japan with the other selected locations, via the terminator thresholds on the same day !  

I am doing this using the same method you and Brian have currently deemed "insignificant", I am simply using someone else's data instead ... am I gaining any credible attention with this yet ?

No because I really don't know what you're talking about.

Quote:Its my birthday next week, so if your thinking of getting me something ... a 10 degree corridor would be nice !

Help yourself but be warned; it raises your probability way high, making chance impossible to beat.

The most valuable prediction would be to identify the location of a mag 8+ quake in a small area which has never had one before. Probability zero.

Roger