Earthwaves Earth Sciences Forum - Joining the seismic dots 16 / 1 / 2017

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Roger;

Sorry if I sounded defensive ... a consequence of looking at sea mounds all day, you know how tiresome that can be Sleepy

.

Here lies the problem, you will not be able to reproduce this because you don't have what I have ! And I can not disclose the source unless the data is deemed significant. I don't fully understand this myself, but I do know that for a majority of 5+ quakes, sunrise / sunset, morning or night terminator is nearly always on one of these bearings when the quake occurs. This is my third attempt (first online) so I know the bearings have no meaning after new moon ... it's like the slate is wiped clean !. But if I get the data days before the quakes, there must be a way to figure out where they relate to.

I haven't finished formatting my results for you yet, but the figures show; 38 expired predictions, 31 correct in longitude, 7 misses, and 12 on target with latitude. Of the 7 misses, 4 events only reached 4.9 mag, 2 occurred at 35 - 36 days respectively, and 1 (Iceland was a no show). Of the 12 on target, I determined there location by spending many hours watching for distortions in the ACE space data at times of sunrise and sunset ( that's why it feels insulting when one's efforts are dismissed). If you get distortions both ways, then you have X marks the spot. My technique is improving, but the Satellite time is getting shorter, if the people at NOAA left the Satellite on, I'm confident I would be able to find more X's.

This is why I know these data lines have potential in determining time of event, they are indirectly linked to sunrise / sunset time at pre-seismic locations.

Duffy

(01-19-2017, 06:40 PM)Duffy Wrote: [ -> ]Duffy;

>>Sorry if I sounded defensive ... a consequence of looking at sea mounds all day, you know how tiresome that can be .

No problem. I just don't want to lose you over a misunderstanding.

>> Here lies the problem, you will not be able to reproduce this because you don't have what I have ! And I can not disclose the source unless the data is deemed significant. I don't fully understand this myself, but I do know that for a majority of 5+ quakes, sunrise / sunset, morning or night terminator is nearly always on one of these bearings when the quake occurs. This is my third attempt (first online) so I know the bearings have no meaning after new moon ... it's like the slate is wiped clean !. But if I get the data days before the quakes, there must be a way to figure out where they relate to.

That IS a problem because if I can't reproduce it, I can't test it.

>> I haven't finished formatting my results for you yet, but the figures show; 38 expired predictions, 31 correct in longitude, 7 misses, and 12 on target with latitude. Of the 7 misses, 4 events only reached 4.9 mag, 2 occurred at 35 - 36 days respectively, and 1 (Iceland was a no show). Of the 12 on target, I determined there location by spending many hours watching for distortions in the ACE space data at times of sunrise and sunset ( that's why it feels insulting when one's efforts are dismissed). If you get distortions both ways, then you have X marks the spot. My technique is improving, but the Satellite time is getting shorter, if the people at NOAA left the Satellite on, I'm confident I would be able to find more X's.

The effort involved counts for nothing. Only the results matter here.

>> This is why I know these data lines have potential in determining time of event, they are indirectly linked to sunrise / sunset time at pre-seismic locations.

Then why don't all quakes happen at dawn/dusk? I can assure you, they don't.

Roger

[quote pid='2030' dateline='1484852331']

No problem. I just don't want to lose you over a misunderstanding.

>>I'm not going anywhere ... my new year resolution is to stay off high horses (Your advice), but it also includes no more flogging dead one's (my advice)

That IS a problem because if I can't reproduce it, I can't test it.

>> Perhaps seeing if the pattern continues until new moon,will give sufficient testimony to it's authenticity as a phenomena in it's own right. This will repeat again because the source comes in cycles like the moon.

The effort involved counts for nothing. Only the results matter here.

>> Breaking down the numbers I gave you, it calculates as; for every 3 predictions I have posted, 1 has been correct and on target. As you don't have a frame of reference (record) to compare the results with on Earthwaves, neither of us can say for sure if a 30% result counts for anything. I guess normal life is watching TV in the evenings, washing the car or going to the game on Saturdays, and sitting round the table with family for Sunday dinner. I use to have a life like that, nobody knows what goes on behind the scenes, but be assured, just as you attested to me about the low points of being an evaluator, effort counts for everything as a predictor.

Then why don't all quakes happen at dawn/dusk? I can assure you, they don't.

>> If the data table is showing correlation with earthquakes, then technically speaking "they do", but not at the event location itself: 16th Jan sunrise at 144' 11' E 20:48 ut ... 5.7 Vanuatu 20:48 ut
14th Jan sunset at 54' 28' E 15:07 ut .... 5.4 Tanimbar, Indonesia 15:07 ut etc, etc

Duffy

[/quote]

(01-18-2017, 11:46 PM)Duffy Wrote: [ -> ]
(01-18-2017, 02:57 AM)Roger Hunter Wrote: [ -> ]
(01-18-2017, 12:35 AM)Duffy Wrote: [ -> ]
(01-18-2017, 12:00 AM)Roger Hunter Wrote: [ -> ]
(01-17-2017, 11:17 PM)Duffy Wrote: [ -> ]I have re-posted the table below and included sun / moon latitude. I believe I am granted a certain amount of tolerance here, with respect to my solar / lunar hypothesis. Not sure if this extends to other elements I use to detect anomalies, but I've decided nobody will get the point of this thread unless I include them !. Again, the object of this, is not to predict earthquakes, but to see if the data in the table has relevance to predicting time. The source of the data is not of importance unless the experiment shows different. I can say it is not linked to past seismic events or lunar data, but it is questionable.  A 5.9 occurred in Cuba today on 76' 34' W, within 1 degree of the 15th Jan data below ... is that number there by chance ? , coincidence or does it have relevance ?

This experiment is real-time, and takes a lot of effort to keep pace with. It started with a 5.8 in Vanuatu with the centre of the sun on 163' E longitude. I intend to finish on 28th Jan at 01:20 ut, because this is exact time of new moon, and occurs on 163' E longitude. The abbreviations are the same as before, and dates in brackets refer to the lines of data in the table.

4th Jan 19:54 ut ... CS 117' 12' W - 22' 38' S ...... CM 40' 19' W - 1' 23' S

6th Jan 01:41 ut ... CS 156' 12' W - 22' 29' S ...... CM 112' 06' W - 4' 08' N

6th Jan 08:28 ut ... CS 54' 29' E - 22' 27' S ...... CM 149' 38' E - 5' 22' N

7th Jan 10:24 ut ... CS   25' 36' E - 22' 19' S ...... CM 134' 20' E - 9' 55' N

10th Jan 15:26 ut ... CS 49' 35' W - 21' 52' S ..... CM 103' 22' E - 18' 34' N

12th Jan 13:14 ut ... CS 16' 23' W - 21' 33' S ..... CM 163' 59' E - 18' 06' N

15th Jan 00:26 ut ... CS 175' 50' E - 21' 07' S ...... CM 28' 53' E - 11' 39' N

15th Jan 17:19 ut ... CS 77' 21' W - 20' 59' S ...... CM 144' 11' E - 9' 04' N

18th Jan 18:54 ut ... CS 100' 51' W - 20' 23' S ...... CM 154' 29' E - 3' 09' S

18th Jan 23:38 ut ... CS 171' 50' W - 20' 20' S ...... CM 85' 34' E - 3' 55' S

............................................................................................................................................................
Events for 19th Jan

19th Jan M 5.0 West Indian Antarctic ridge 10:15:56 ut ... 127' 29' E - 49' 02' S .....................................
CS 28' 43' E (15th Jan) ...... LM 76' 30' W (15th Jan)...............................................................
Transition of day to night at bearing 134' 20' E - 9' 55' N (7th Jan) occurred at 10:16 ut 19th Jan

19th Jan M 6.5 Solomon Islands 23:04:16 ut ...161' 18' E - 10' 19' S .............CM 104' 17' E (10th Jan) .....
Refer to data added to table "18th Jan 18:54 ut = CM 154' 29' E + 7.25 Degrees aft
= 161' 44' E Solomon Islands !

New data added to table ... Prediction scenario now places Aleutian Islands event at 170' 46' W

Duffy

Events for 21st Jan

21st Jan M 5.2 New Britain Region, P.N.G. 01:52:30 ut ... 152' 21' E - 5' 13' S ...... CS 154' 42' E (18th Jan) .......................

21st Jan M 5.7 Halmahera, Indonesia 05:16:33 ut ... 128' 13' E - 2' 52' N ............. CS 103' 41' E (10th Jan) .......................
Transition of night to day at bearing 16' 23' W - 21' 33' S (12th Jan) occurred at ................. 05:17 ut 21 Jan

21st Jan M 5.0 Banda Sea 06:30:50 ut ... 130' 21' E - 6' 12' S ............................... CS 85' 07' E (18th Jan) ........................

21st Jan M 5.0 Kermadec Islands 17:53:32 ut ... 177' 37' W - 33' 03' S ..............................................................................
Sunrise at bearing 175' 50' E - 21' 07' S (15th Jan) occurred at .......................................... 17:54 ut 21st Jan

Duffy

(01-21-2017, 07:46 PM)Duffy Wrote: [ -> ]Events for 21st Jan

21st Jan M 5.2 New Britain Region, P.N.G. 01:52:30 ut ... 152' 21' E - 5' 13' S ...... CS 154' 42' E (18th Jan) .......................

21st Jan M 5.7 Halmahera, Indonesia 05:16:33 ut ... 128' 13' E - 2' 52' N ............. CS 103' 41' E (10th Jan) .......................
Transition of night to day at bearing 16' 23' W - 21' 33' S (12th Jan) occurred at ................. 05:17 ut 21 Jan

21st Jan M 5.0 Banda Sea 06:30:50 ut ... 130' 21' E - 6' 12' S ............................... CS 85' 07' E (18th Jan) ........................

21st Jan M 5.0 Kermadec Islands 17:53:32 ut ... 177' 37' W - 33' 03' S ..............................................................................
Sunrise at bearing 175' 50' E - 21' 07' S (15th Jan) occurred at .......................................... 17:54 ut 21st Jan

Duffy

Ok, found the bug. Quakes were being counted multiple times.

I used all quakes mag 5+ for 2016 as the data set. there were 1686 of them and 145 were mag 6+

I used the 6+ quakes as main quakes. The longitude of each one was the center point and the longitudes which were 90 degrees either direction were used as sunrise/sunset locations.

Then all small quakes were examined, looking for quakes within a given distance from either sunrise or sunset longitudes.

Using the band with of +/- 0.5 degrees it found 8 of the main quakes having 9 such quakes between them.

Using a +/- 1 degree width there were 23 quakes within 17 of the main quakes.

So what does it all mean?

Nothing, Just chance, of no predictive value.

Roger

Events for 22nd Jan

22nd Jan M 7.9 Bougainville Region P.N.G. 155' 06' E - 6' 12' S ............................................................ 04:30:23 ut
Sunrise at Bearing 28' 53' E - 11' 39' N (15th Jan) occurred at ....................................... 04:30 ut 22nd Jan

22nd Jan M 5.6 New Britain Region, P.N.G. 04:44:52 ut ... 153' 33' E - 6' 12' S ...... LS 104' 11' E (10th Jan) ....................

Roger;

Once again ... this has nothing to do with prediction, if there is any prediction value here, it can only be assessed after the experiment is finished. The object of the exercise is to determine why there seems to be a link between the data in the table, that I posted on the 16th, and "real-time" events. You know yourself that a 7.9 occurred in P.N.G. at 04:30 ut ... I know my self, that I calculated a co-ordinate of 28' 53' E by 11' 39' N on the 15th, and posted it with the rest on the 16th. Now, if the quake had gone off 5 minutes sooner or later, it would not be sunrise on my co-ordinate. So in a hypothetical scenario, this would imply that I would have to know the exact time the quake was going to occur, and then choose a random point along the sunrise threshold over South Sudan,and stick a pin in my map. That would sound ridiculous in reality, and that's why this is so intriguing, I work the source and stick a pin in my map, and 7 days later, I end up on the sunrise threshold in Sudan, at the exact time a major quake occurs on the other side of the world! As I have stated, I am not a scientist so I can only assume that my words here are clear enough for a scientist to understand. I don't know science lingo, so I can only apologies if this is not to standard. I am "not" predicting here, I just want any scientist to tell me, if my source of information has correlation with earthquakes.

Another point is, I showed a possible link between the events in Cuba, Italy and the Solomon's ... the link being 156' 12' E. The 7.9 in P.N.G. occurred on 155' 06' E, which calculates as 54 arc minutes west of said bearing. I have another cross on my map at 154' 29' E (source calculated and posted on the 18th), 7.9 occurred 37 arc minutes East of this bearing. A further 5.6 quake occurred 15 minutes later in the New Britain Region at 153' 33' E ... 56 arc minutes from 154' 29' E. If I had known they were there ...would I not have tried to predict them ? the crosses are there because of source, not because an earthquake lies below !

Final point ...

[attachment=210]

The satellite feed stopped at 20:40 ut 21st Jan ... Centre of the moon was on 160' 33' E at this time. Using my formula, if you move 7.25 degrees fore or west of this bearing, you land on 153' 18' E (15 arc minutes West of 5.6 New Britain). It stopped the same time the night before, in both cases the moon was in the vicinity of 156' 12' E ... interesting !

Duffy

(01-22-2017, 03:28 PM)Duffy Wrote: [ -> ]Duffy;

>> Once again ... this has nothing to do with prediction, if there is any prediction value here, it can only be assessed after the experiment is finished. The object of the exercise is to determine why there seems to be a link between the data in the table, that I posted on the 16th, and "real-time" events. You know yourself that a 7.9 occurred in P.N.G. at 04:30 ut ... I know my self, that I calculated a co-ordinate of 28' 53' E by 11' 39' N on the 15th, and posted it with the rest on the 16th. Now, if the quake had gone off 5 minutes sooner or later, it would not be sunrise on my co-ordinate. So in a hypothetical scenario, this would imply that I would have to know the exact time the quake was going to occur, and then choose a random point along the sunrise threshold over South Sudan,and stick a pin in my map. That would sound ridiculous in reality, and that's why this is so intriguing, I work the source and stick a pin in my map, and 7 days later, I end up on the sunrise threshold in Sudan, at the exact time a major quake occurs on the other side of the world!

I understand that, but it would lead to predictions if it is significantly repeatable.

>> As I have stated, I am not a scientist so I can only assume that my words here are clear enough for a scientist to understand. I don't know science lingo, so I can only apologies if this is not to standard. I am "not" predicting here, I just want any scientist to tell me, if my source of information has correlation with earthquakes.

And as you say, that has to wait until you are finished.

>> The satellite feed stopped at 20:40 ut 21st Jan ... Centre of the moon was on 160' 33' E at this time. Using my formula, if you move 7.25 degrees fore or west of this bearing, you land on 153' 18' E (15 arc minutes West of 5.6 New Britain). It stopped the same time the night before, in both cases the moon was in the vicinity of 156' 12' E ... interesting !

Yes but is it significant? I'm trying to determine how often it happens by chance. I've done it with random date/times and now with quakes and the answer seems to be depends on how wide the hit bands are.

Roger

(01-22-2017, 03:28 PM)Duffy Wrote: [ -> ]Events for 22nd Jan

22nd Jan M 7.9 Bougainville Region P.N.G. 155' 06' E - 6' 12' S ............................................................ 04:30:23 ut
Sunrise at Bearing 28' 53' E - 11' 39' N (15th Jan) occurred at ....................................... 04:30 ut 22nd Jan

22nd Jan M 5.6 New Britain Region, P.N.G. 04:44:52 ut ... 153' 33' E - 6' 12' S ...... LS 104' 11' E (10th Jan) ....................

22nd Jan M 5.4 North Island, NZ ... 177' 39' E - 37' 47' S ................................................................... 21:00:16 ut
Sunset at bearing 40' 19' W - 1' 23' S (4th Jan) occurred at ........................................ 21:00 ut 22nd Jan

(01-23-2017, 12:37 AM)Duffy Wrote: [ -> ]
(01-22-2017, 03:28 PM)Duffy Wrote: [ -> ]Events for 22nd Jan

22nd Jan M 7.9 Bougainville Region P.N.G. 155' 06' E - 6' 12' S ............................................................ 04:30:23 ut
Sunrise at Bearing 28' 53' E - 11' 39' N (15th Jan) occurred at ....................................... 04:30 ut 22nd Jan

22nd Jan M 5.6 New Britain Region, P.N.G. 04:44:52 ut ... 153' 33' E - 6' 12' S ...... LS 104' 11' E (10th Jan) ....................

22nd Jan M 5.4 North Island, NZ ... 177' 39' E - 37' 47' S ................................................................... 21:00:16 ut
Sunset at bearing 40' 19' W - 1' 23' S (4th Jan) occurred at ........................................ 21:00 ut 22nd Jan

Duffy;

Maybe what I need is a more accurate location for sun and moon.

How do you locate them? We agreed once that simple longitude bands 90 degrees either side was good enough but I'm not getting as many hits as you are getting.

Roger

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