Predicting 5.0 plus earthquake in Parkfield, CA
07/01/2016 9am PDT through 07/04/16 9am- 72 hours
Coordinates =
Parkfield is located at
![[Image: 17px-WMA_button2b.png]](https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/5/55/WMA_button2b.png/17px-WMA_button2b.png)
WikiMiniAtlas
35°53′59″N 120°25′58″W
Based on Drop in Dilatometer readings at Donna Lee and Vineyard Canyon
http://escweb.wr.usgs.gov/share/langbein...pkf_30.png
Also if predicted earthquake does occur I think there it will be strike slip with vertical displacement too
Steve S in San Francisco
(07-01-2016, 04:32 PM)Steve S in SF Wrote: [ -> ]60 kilometer radius centered at 35°53′59″N 120°25′58″W
No statement on odds
Hi Steve,
Spotted an error in my prediction whilst reading yours, Just sending an unintentional thank you, glad your using original bearing format rather than decimal or I would not have seen it. My focus is on the Oman region at the moment, but I wish you luck with Parkfield.
Duffy
(07-01-2016, 08:07 PM)Duffy Wrote: [ -> ] (07-01-2016, 04:32 PM)Steve S in SF Wrote: [ -> ]60 kilometer radius centered at 35°53′59″N 120°25′58″W
No statement on odds
Hi Steve,
Spotted an error in my prediction whilst reading yours, Just sending an unintentional thank you, glad your using original bearing format rather than decimal or I would not have seen it. My focus is on the Oman region at the moment, but I wish you luck with Parkfield.
Duffy
Vineyard Canyon Dilatometer looks like it might be broken. Glad I at least didn't post percentage of chance. Donna Lee reading looks ok though.
(07-02-2016, 03:41 AM)Steve S in SF Wrote: [ -> ] (07-01-2016, 08:07 PM)Duffy Wrote: [ -> ] (07-01-2016, 04:32 PM)Steve S in SF Wrote: [ -> ]60 kilometer radius centered at 35°53′59″N 120°25′58″W
No statement on odds
Hi Steve,
Spotted an error in my prediction whilst reading yours, Just sending an unintentional thank you, glad your using original bearing format rather than decimal or I would not have seen it. My focus is on the Oman region at the moment, but I wish you luck with Parkfield.
Duffy
Vineyard Canyon Dilatometer looks like it might be broken. Glad I at least didn't post percentage of chance. Donna Lee reading looks ok though.
Good point, adding percentage of chance implies uncertainty or pursuit of causality rather than accuracy!
The small quakes in the Parkfield area DO look a bit suspicious. 12 years since the 2004 quake...but who knows?
Ahhh...Parkfield! That whole region just tantalizes and then sits back and thumbs the nose at us.