04-05-2019, 06:31 PM
04-06-2019, 05:00 AM
(04-05-2019, 06:31 PM)PennyB Wrote: [ -> ]3.8 quake just occurred in Parkfield. Noting...may mean nothing (probably does!) But larger quakes there have had foreshocks of this sort.
Recent history and recurrence intervals:
1857
1881 - 24
1901 - 20
1922 - 21
1934 - 12
1966 - 32
2004 - 38
now - 15
The 1934 event happened about 10 years early.
2004 happened about 15 years late.
If things got back on track, the next one should have already occurred 5-7 years ago.
My ad hoc corrected pattern:
1857
1881 - 24
1901 - 20
1922 - 21
1944 - 22
1966 - 22
1990 - 24
2013 - 23
2034 - 22
But we all know this means bupkis.
Brian